The past few years in crypto have been one of turmoil and turmoil, bringing asset prices back to valuations of years ago. With a new year here, crypto investors and traders are rightly preparing for the worst. However, Dirk Hartig, Head of Trading Education at PrimeXBT*, says that a new crypto bull market is on its way and is only a matter of time.
Find out what else Hartig has to say about the state of crypto and when you can expect “prices to rise” again.
What 20+ Years of Experience Says About the Crypto Market Cycle
Part of what makes Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies so volatile is the speculative nature of the new asset class. Although the asset class is mature, there is still no established way to value such a young technology. Instead, crypto as a whole suffers an ebb and flow between euphoria and despair.
When the market rises, greed often blinds investors from realizing that a top is forming. In contrast, fear often prevents investors or traders from taking a position on the bottom. Fighting these natural feelings and going against the grain is usually the best strategy.
However, timing the market is much more difficult in practice than in theory. Dirk Hartig, PrimeXBT* Trading Academy’s Head of Trading Education, draws on his more than 20 years of experience trading stocks, commodities, forex and crypto and makes some bold predictions about what’s to come in crypto based solely on factual evidence.
Bitcoin first in violent crypto bull market, claims Hartig
According to PrimeXBT* research, Hartig says to pay the most attention to Bitcoin first, as “every bull market in the past” has been initiated by BTC. He specifically mentions Bitcoin and Ethereum as key market drivers for the rest of the crypto sentiment. When these two appear, it’s essentially a green light for riskier altcoins.
Later in a bull market, when the trend shows confirmation with significant movement, altcoins typically begin to follow Bitcoin’s trail. Hartig doesn’t see why that shouldn’t be the case again, and for now stresses caution when considering altcoins.
In an earlier video from May, Hartig provided three key tips for altcoins for the next bull market, each of which has outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum. One of the choices remains well in the green with an ROI of over 150% even in difficult market conditions. The list includes GMX, Centrifuge and Ren.
Why bitcoin could return to $40,000 or higher at the next halving
Instead of filling a screen with dozens of confusing indicators, Hartig breaks things down as simply as possible to reassure anxious investors and traders who may be missing out on low crypto prices. Using a simple Excel chart, Hartig shows that throughout Bitcoin’s history, a red year tends to be followed by a three-year bull market.
Next, Hartig uses a time-based formula that uses the distance from each halving to make a prediction about the next 18 months of the crypto market. The last two bull markets produced between 240% and 282% before each halving.
This sets the price per BTC between $40,000 and $58,000 at next halving. This particular halving lowers the BTC block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. It is well known that the Bitcoin halving pushes supply and demand in favor of a price increase.
Evidence of a Bitcoin Bottom Just Before Another Black Swan Event
In another video, Hartig has some reassuring words for crypto investors: You may be running out of time to buy Bitcoin cheap. For those waiting for $12,000, $10,000 or less can be unlucky. The MVRV-Z-Score, which helps show periods when BTC is overvalued or undervalued, is currently at historically low levels.
“There will be another bull market. The question now is how do we time this bull market,” Hartig said. “We may see a tougher market in 2023 with lots of ups and downs, but as the year progresses we should see rising prices into early 2024 and beyond,” he continued.
“The only threat I see is a so-called black swan event that will dampen prices,” he added. Possible Black Swan events could include a world war or a pandemic similar to the coronavirus. Even that won’t kill Bitcoin, according to Hartig. Using the example of COVID, a crisis can often be a trigger for bull markets and monetary policy changes by the Fed.
How PrimeXBT* can prepare you for the next bull market
The PrimeXBT* Trading Academy is a free service offered to all PrimeXBT* customers. The training program includes dozens of Hartig videos that teach traders profitable strategies, how to use the PrimeXBT platform and much more. He also hosts That Crypto Show on YouTube.
PrimeXBT* Trading Academy combined with built-in technical analysis tools, risk management strategies and weekly competitions at PrimeXBT* competitions can help even the most experienced traders improve. The risk-free virtual funds can be used to compete for crypto-based prices or to test technical indicators and trading strategies taught at the academy.
All in all, anyone can rely on PrimeXBT* tools such as long and short positions for leverage, either through the award-winning mobile app for Android and iOS devices or the powerful desktop experience. Sign up today and implement an action plan. Buy crypto, trade traditional assets alongside crypto, copy trade and more at PrimeXBT*.
*Risk notice: Investing in or trading cryptocurrencies or any other asset may be risky and may result in a total loss of capital.