A polar vortex split in November with a completely disrupted circulation?

As Germany is inundated with warm air masses, processes are starting to take effect in the polar vortex, which could lead to an early polar vortex breakup during the first decade of November. What is it?

Ei Hoch is spreading over Germany and – provided the night fog lifts – will cause a storm in the coming days lots of sunshine. Only isolated showers are to be expected.

Hot in summer?

The air masses calm down, and the sun therefore has enough time during the day to bring the air masses up to +16 to +21 degrees and locally to +23 degrees in the morning to warm up the late summer area. At the end of the week, an air mass influx from the southwest will strengthen at higher altitudes, which may cause temperatures to rise to +17 to +23 degrees. Regional values ​​can go in the direction of summery +25 degrees and even exceed it locally. In detail, however, it will depend on how quickly the fog dissolves and how much it can cool down during the partly clear nights. More on this in the current weather forecast for October.

that Forecast of the German (left) and American (right) weather model: A low pressure in the Atlantic transports unusually warm air masses northwards over Central Europe by means of a high pressure system © www.meteociel.fr

The rain forecast

Short showers cannot be ruled out in the coming days, but no significant precipitation is expected through Sunday – it will remain dry in most areas.

The European rain forecast is on the left, the US forecast in the middle and the German forecast on the right: regional showers are possible and a focus is emerging over the coastal areas of the North Sea
The US rain forecast is on the left and the German forecast on the right: Regional showers are possible and the focus is emerging over the coastal areas of the North Sea © windy.com

The Atlantic frontal zone moves closer to Germany

that Forecast Both forecast models today agree on the development of the general weather situation until the first days of November.

Cold air sweeps across eastern Canada

The first similarity lies in the calculated Cold air sweeps across eastern Canada, which begins on October 29 and culminates on November 4. Cold air masses of polar origin flow in on too hot Atlantic Ocean. The resulting temperature contrasts leave the low pressure dynamics straight explode and will be initialized on 2 November in the area of ​​Greenland and Iceland centrally controlled gravure printing systemthat stretches far to the south with its spurs and gradually expands to the east.

November starts too hot

Because low-pressure systems rotate counterclockwise and high-pressure systems rotate clockwise, Germany, Austria and Switzerland will remain in a warm southwesterly flow of air masses until November 3rd. Both the Americans and the Europeans calculate temperatures from +14 to +18 degrees and locally up to +22 degrees. What increases is cloud cover and winds from south-westerly directions, as on 3 November over the western part of Potential for gales can increase.

The Atlantic frontal zone moves closer to Germany
Forecast according to the European (left) and American (right) weather model: The Atlantic frontal zone moves closer to Germany © www.meteociel.fr

Polar vortices will play a decisive role

Both forecast models indicate a tentative high pressure deployment at various points in the polar vortex until November 3rd. Pronounced but is i Forecast the American the rising Centralization of the polar vortex to 3 November in the area from Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Iceland to England. And wherever something is centralized, there is room elsewhere for other developments.

Unusually early polar vortex splitting

The Americans already have one in yesterday’s forecast for November polar vortex split brought into play and confirmed this calculation today.

Although a polar vortex splitting occurs more frequently, especially in the formation and end phase of the polar vortex, the polar vortex is increasingly stabilized at the beginning, and therefore disturbances in the form of a splitting occur only for a short time. But what do the Americans promise is a completely different category.

collapse of the polar vortex

But first things first. On November 3, a wedge of high pressure from the Aleutians extends well into the polar vortex, creating a high pressure bridge to the high over eastern Siberia. Due to low pressure activity in the Atlantic, another high pressure wedge is pushing northward across Eastern Europe and cross-connections to the high pressure bridge between the Aleutians and Siberia.

The polar vortex will go from this high to Pliers taken and shows split behavior between the Aleutians and Scandinavia. To has consequences, because a centralizing high pressure system with a core pressure of up to 1040 hPa will build up over the North Pole on November 7. Where the polar vortex should actually have its center, turn towards Forecast the American cheered his rounds.

Additional high-pressure entries in the polar vortex

Once the centralizing high is established, high pressure episodes continue to follow. Of great importance, a high will extend northwards from the Azores towards Greenland and the Norwegian Sea on the 7th-9th. November. This high-pressure system is positioned as the so-called Blockade high on the Atlantic and as high pressure systems rotate clockwise, cool air masses reach Germany from northern directions, which temperatures from November 4 at +14 to +18 degrees to November 8 at +7 to +12 degrees.

A polar vortex split with completely disrupted circulation
Forecast of the Americans: A polar vortex split with a completely disrupted circulation © www.meteociel.fr

In a nutshell: Cold, wet autumn weather?

There is one more point to consider Forecast the american interesting. The Atlantic frontal zone rages and shows a high intensity at the turn of the month, but one western weather conditions not wanting to arise from it. Rather, it shows a confirmation of one meridional structured general weather conditions (North-South, South-North).

October is still on record

Those calculated by the prediction models The temperatures are for the end of October with +5 to +10 degrees and in phases with up to +14 degrees extremely hot. October currently has a temperature exceedance compared to the long-term average of +3.1 degrees (91/20: +2.7 degrees) and if you add them together Forecast of both prediction models, the excess temperature could be between +3.3 and +3.7 degrees in the end. Of record comes with a deviation of +3.5 degrees from the year 2001. This means that October 2022 is still open record speed. More data and facts about the weather in October.

A decreasing temperature level

To Maximum heat will be reached after the mean value of the control runs between October 28 and 30. Temperature levels then fall slowly and level out on November 9 in an area that is too mild over northern Germany with a deviation from the long-term average of +0.5 to +1.5 degrees and over the south, west and east by +1 to +2 degrees and over the south with up to +2.5 degrees may be significantly too hot. ONE continuous cold air inflow from northern directions looks different and in direct comparison with the control it runs Forecast the American as cold escape. Of polar vortex split is a possible weather development, but changes in the forecast are very likely in the coming hours.

Quiet autumn weather

Precipitation signals up to and including 5 November must be assessed as weak. It becomes widespread high pressure dominated and thus dry weather characterwhich allows temperatures to plummet on clear nights and for exercise hard fog fields can take care of. Only after November 5 do the precipitation signals rise to the slightly elevated area. However, a permanent change to full autumn cannot be deduced from the rainfall forecast either. In summary, the weather in the first decade of November can be expected to be largely dry and too hot.

Regardless of what the polar vortex is doing, the majority of control runs favor a southwesterly oriented land flow
Forecast according to the mean value of all controls: no matter what the polar vortex does, the majority of controls favor a south-west oriented land flow © www.meteociel.fr
The temperature forecast for the control is running
Day temperature spectrum average temperature
31 October +14 more
+24 degrees
+17 more
+20 degrees
November 4th +10 more
+19 degrees
+13 more
+15 degrees
November 9 +7 more
+17 degrees
+10 more
+13 degrees
Map temperatures November 2022
Probability of the November 2022 control runs being too cold, normal, too warm compared to the long-term average (1961 to 1990)

The long-term model’s winter outlook

According to current calculations, the weather in November should again be +1.0 to +2.0 degrees too warm compared to the climate average for 1961 and 1990, and the trend will be up to +2.5 degrees too warm (91/20: + 0.2) up to +1.7 degrees). This trend has changed only slightly in recent weeks.

December will mostly be December with a difference of +1.0 to +2.0 degrees over southern Germany calculated too hot. Further north, the excess is lower at +0.5 to +1.5 degrees, while the deviation over the Alps can be up to +3 degrees (91/20: -0.5 to +2.0 degrees). Of January 2023 calculated with a deviation of +1 to +2 degrees and along the Alps with a difference of +2.5 degrees clearly too warm (91/20: -0.4 to +0.6 degrees).

The long-term prognosis for February 2023. With a deviation of +2 to +3 degrees and a trend of up to +3.5 degrees, the temperature anomaly is in the significantly too warm area (91/20: +0.9 to +2.4 degrees). Eventually he should winter with a deviation of +1.0 to +2.0 degrees and a trend of up to +2.5 degrees (91/20: -0.2 to +1.3 degrees) is clearly too warm.

The precipitation forecast for November is normal over the north and a little too dry over the south. In December, the situation reverses, and the north can be a little too dry and the south too wet. January is simulated normal to slightly too wet and February is simulated slightly too wet.

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