When will the next bull run come?

Italian tomato sauce on the $86 million Vincent van Gogh oil painting “Sunflowers”? This cannot happen to the owners of NFTs. The non-fungible tokens exist on the blockchain and are traded exclusively online.

The digital images of monkeys, kittens or so-called cryptopunks experienced a hype phase last year that should end quickly. After a violent bull run, the NFT market is now on a downtrend.

NonFungible.com’s quarterly NFT market report takes stock of what’s been happening over the past few months. Although the analysis team does not have a “crystal ball”, there may be a light at the end of the tunnel for the NFT sector.

low interest rate

After the devastating Terra collapse and the generally poor macroeconomic situation, it’s no wonder capital markets have been stagnant for weeks. Crypto assets and NFTs have not been left untouched either. Therefore, the search volume for “Non Fungible Tokens” is at a relatively low level.

As the report also points out, China is the number one country in terms of search volume. “This clear interest in NFTs goes against the country’s discourse, which is against cryptocurrencies and any kind of deregulated asset,” the authors write. Last year, China’s central bank imposed a bitcoin mining ban. The industry is still thriving.

A closer look at the country distribution reveals an equivalence: Four of the five countries with the highest search volume are in Asia. The only non-Asian country to make the top 5 is Nigeria. Although cryptocurrencies and especially Bitcoin are also said to be banned here, the Nigerian population has always shown great interest in crypto technology.

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The analysts find it interesting that “official” bans do the opposite. The population is then all the more interested in the forbidden subject.

Depression across the board

The Ethereum merger in mid-September was seen as a complete success. So far, however, there has been no sudden increase in the price. On the contrary: between the beginning of April and the end of September, the price of ether coins fell by 57 percent. At the same time, NFTs also lost a lot of value. The average loss per NFT is a whopping 87 percent.

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At the same time, almost half of the users left the colorful image market. While almost 450,000 active wallets were still registered on the various blockchains in January, this number is now around 200,000 active users. The analysis team mitigated the decline:

There are still more buyers than sellers, with a ratio of about 1.3 buyers to 1 seller.

Therefore, the demand is still greater than the existing supply. By the end of the third quarter, the relationship appears to have stabilized further. For 150,000 buyers, there would be 110,000 sellers.

When will the next bull run come?

However, there is a glimmer of hope. While analysts say that some NFT projects are “dead”, most of the industry behind them is not automatically dead. “The NFT market’s era of profit and speculation is over. Little by little, a new story is being written about this technology,” it continues. The argument for this change is the interest from various industries.

And indeed: well-known brand companies such as Starbucks, Nike, competitor Adidas or Gucci have been looking for a way into the crypto and NFT ecosystem for some time. The tokens must primarily offer benefits for customers.

NonFungible.com sees a learning curve from this: “The industry has learned from 2021 and is preparing for the next wave of mass adoption.” The analysts do not reveal exactly when this time is. They don’t have a “crystal ball”.

method

NonFungible.com collected blockchain data via dedicated proprietary “Blockchain Nodes”. The results considered in this report came from analyzes of ERC-721 tokens, Ethereum, Ronin and Flow blockchains.

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