The long-awaited interest rate decision from the US central bank was in line with expectations of 75 basis points. The financial market reacted positively to this decision in the following days. The positive business outlook from Amazon and Apple last Thursday was able to compensate for the weak quarterly numbers from Meta and caused a price increase at the end of the week. The crypto market followed this positive trend in the stock market and also trended further north in the following days. Although Bitcoin (BTC) once again missed a sustained breakout above the US$24,200 resistance level, the key cryptocurrency is able to stabilize above US$23,000 so far at the start of the week today. You can read in the following overview article which economic data and quarterly figures from the USA may influence the price development of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Co this week.
Important company data in focus
After the majority of the major US technology companies such as Microsoft, Apple and Amazon presented their quarterly figures last week, other relevant technology companies from the second tier will open their books this week. Investors should keep an eye on the quarterly numbers for the largest institutional Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy and the numbers from the world’s largest payment services provider Paypal tomorrow Tuesday. Both companies are major players in the crypto space.
This week’s rain of numbers will be rounded off with business figures from US broker Robinhood midweek and the quarterly report from The Block next Thursday. Possible sales declines and weak business outlook for the second half of the year are likely to have a negative impact on the crypto sector.
The first figures on the number of vacancies in the US on Tuesday
The JOLTS jobs report will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow, Tuesday, August 2 at 16:00 (CET). The experts’ forecast is 11 million vacancies. In the previous month, the number of vacancies in the United States was 11.25 million. A further decline in the number of vacancies suggests a continuing economic slowdown. This in turn increases the likelihood of a downturn in the US. At the same time, the continued negative development in the labor market should be taken into account by the US central bank when it makes its next interest rate decision in September.
Mid-week ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the month of July follows on Wednesday 3 August at 16:00 (CET). The Institute for Supply Management presents the results of the monthly survey among 370 purchasing managers and company managers from 62 industries. The experts’ forecast for the past month is 53.3 after 55.3 in June. Falling PMI numbers indicate a deeper downturn in the key services sector. Worse-than-expected numbers could prompt the Fed to reconsider its interest rate policy sooner. The stock market and thus also the crypto market could interpret less good numbers bullishly.
Initial US jobless claims on Thursday
The following Thursday, August 4, at At 14:30 (CET) the number of first jobless claims in the US will be presented. 259,000 new initial applications are currently expected. In the previous week, this figure was 256,000. If this number continues to rise as it did in previous weeks, it may be more likely than advertised that the Fed will decide to initiate new financial easing to stave off a sharp rise in unemployment in the coming months.
Big labor market report at the end of the week
On the last day of the first trading week, August 5 at 14:30 (CET), the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) figures for the latest month of July will be published. These so-called “Nonfarm Payrolls” describe the monthly change in the number of non-farm employees. The monthly labor market report is the most important and meaningful figure among the US economic indicators. Increasing job growth is considered an indication of an improvement in the labor market and the associated increase in consumption. If, on the other hand, job growth corrects, it is an important indication of increasing problems in the labor market.
In the past, declining job growth has often had a negative effect on future consumption. The forecast for July is 250,000 employees. Compared to the previous month (372,000), the experts’ forecasts are again well below the published figures from June. Weak NFP figures have a negative impact on the US dollar, which can have a positive effect on the development of the Bitcoin price. In addition, weak employment data will be another reason for the US central bank to reconsider the planned rate hikes.
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