Striking sudden change in the weather in continuation of midsummer?

An exciting weather development is taking shape and will either prolong midsummer or end it abruptly with a sharp drop in the weather.

pshudder and Thunder today there will always be south of a line from Cologne and Berlin that is regionally stronger and locally stormy may fail (thunderstorm radar). During the night and Saturday, precipitation activity shifts eastward and may cover parts of Brandenburg, Saxony, Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt and Bavaria for prolonged rainfall worries. that temperatures reach +22 to +26 degrees and with a little sunshine up to +28 degrees is possible. Near showers it cools down to +17 degrees.

Hot August

On Sunday and also on Monday, a low pressure approach will be felt over northern Germany, and passing clouds will provide some variation with rain. To the south it dries up and the duration of sunshine increases. Until 3 August, sunshine will also prevail over the north and temperatures will rise to +27 to +32 degrees and locally to +35 degrees. At +20 to +25 degrees it stays a little cooler over the coastal parts of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. More on this in the current weather forecast for August.

that Forecast by the Europeans and the American weather model: First a dampener, then midsummer © www.meteociel.fr

How much rain can be expected?

The precipitation focal points are clearly distributed and simulated largely uniformly, so that one can have legitimate hopes for significant precipitation over the eastern states. As it is mostly showers and Thunder actions (thunderstorm forecast), some areas may remain dry. Not much rain is expected, especially over the north, west and southwest. The rain forecast for the German forecast model also clearly shows the maritime influence over northern Germany, which could lead to a slightly unstable weather character until 2 August.

The European rain forecast is on the left, the US forecast in the middle and the German forecast on the right: Showers and thunderstorms will provide variety in the coming days
The European rain forecast is on the left, the US forecast in the middle and the German forecast on the right: Showers and thunderstorms will provide variety in the coming days © windy.com

Forecast based on the European weather model: End of midsummer

The last few days they have fluctuated Forecast the European one between a midsummer weather situation and a trough advance initiated from Scandinavia.

hot and desert days

A weather situation dominated by high pressure until August 4 has been confirmed, which may cause temperatures over Germany, Austria and Switzerland to rise to the range of +29 to +34 degrees and locally to +38 degrees. In theory it is To reach the +40 degree mark cannot be ruled out over the western urban areas.

Scandinavia deep

In the period 2 to 4 August, an Icelandic low will shift towards Scandinavia and become increasingly stronger in the process. The high retreats to the west on August 6 – not much – but enough for the Scandinavian low pressure to back south on the eastern high pressure gradient and affect the weather over Germany.

the end of midsummer?

Temperatures on August 5 will reach +17 to +23 degrees and over the southwest to +26 degrees, and on August 7 will drop to +15 to +20 degrees over the north and to +20 to +25 degrees over the south. ONE summer day are with values ​​from +20 to +30 degrees and a Midsummer Day defined by more than +30 degrees. as desert day is a day when the +35 degree mark is exceeded. And it quickly becomes clear – midsummer comes after it Forecast the Europeans miss out on a – possibly – permanent setback from August 5.

Hot in midsummer until August 4, followed by a sharp change of weather
Forecast According to the European weather model: warm in midsummer until August 4, followed by a sharp drop in weather © www.meteociel.fr

US Weather Model forecast: A midsummer weather trend with many question marks

You have to give the Americans one thing – they have made their program with an extension of the midsummer heat for about 96 hours. Since there is hardly a wobble and then one remains The heat wave in August remains a problem.

high pressure build-up

In the period from 3 to 6 August, the Atlantic frontal zone shifts from Iceland towards Scandinavia and tries to include northern Germany with its foot. However, as has already been simulated over the past few days, this process is taking place too far north and a high pressure wedge is expanding from the Azores towards Europe. The influence of the Atlantic frontal zone can be assessed as low.

midsummer

The high pressure wedge continues to expand northward until August 7, extending from the Azores across Europe to across the Barents and Kara Seas. Low pressure systems don’t have a chance to assert themselves against this high pressure ridge so quickly.

Temperatures on August 4 reach +32 to +38 degrees and under certain conditions also +40 degree mark, before the values ​​hit a damper with +18 to +24 degrees until August 6. But already on August 7, the values ​​move in the direction of midsummer +30 degrees and levels off at +27 to +33 degrees no later than August 10 and up to +36 degrees locally. It stays a little cooler at +20 to +25 degrees above the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas.

Despite a brief lull between August 5 and 6, the Americans are counting on one midsummer first decade of Augustwhich can be +3 to +8 degrees too warm compared to the long-term average and regionally up to +10 degrees too warm.

error

The polar vortex is slowly stirring up over the polar region and making the first preparations for autumn and winter, which is not unusual now. However, this has an impact on the weather, as the weather dynamics increase and can lead to disruptive effects. The Americans are counting on such an error, which will travel in an adventurous path from Greenland towards Scandinavia from August 10 to 14 and in this process can not only intensify, but also expand. The mound does not feel up to the pressure and moves west. As a result, the blockade over Europe is missing, and nothing stands in the way of the Scandinavian depression escaping south.

Striking weather change?

We have repeatedly described these trough processes in the last few days, but the note applies here as well: a trough is basically possible, but the probability of this happening after such a well-established weather situation can be classified as quite low. Such a trough is more often directed south via Eastern Europe. But assuming the trough is rushing south over Germany, what temperatures would we expect? The temperatures could say goodbye to midsummer from 13 August with +30 to +38 degrees and locally up to +40 degrees until 15 August with +20 to +25 degrees.

False impulses or low projections cannot counteract the high-pressure dominance
Forecast according to the American weather model: failure or low pressure cannot counteract the high pressure dominance © www.meteociel.fr

In short: Is the first half of August clearly too hot?

The uncertainties in the form of interfering impulses or low point projections are retained in the simulations of the forecast models and are particularly pronounced among Europeans today. Against this background, one must basic question mark at midsummer first half of August.

But it’s all about probabilities and you set them Forecast of the Europeans compared to the control runs, the Europeans’ calculations are clearly too cold. The control runs do not follow. If you take the simulation of the Americans into account, they are clearly too hot. The most likely variant will thus lie in the middle of the two extremes and if you look more closely at the mean value of all control runs, there is a Weak gradient and high pressure dominated weather conditions most likely.

Rain forecast: showers and thunderstorms

Weak gradient means an unstable stratification of the air masses, which can repeatedly lead to showers and thunderstorms, and then the precipitation signals from 1 to 7 August are evenly distributed. It will not be possible to have an absolutely stable weather character. However, precipitation signals tend to diminish after 7 August, which does not necessarily indicate a trough over Central Europe.

A wide range of development continues, but a summery temperature character dominates
Forecast according to the mean of all control runs: a wide range of development continues, but a summer temperature character dominates © www.meteociel.fr
The temperature forecast for the control is running
Day temperature spectrum average temperature
August 3 +20 more
+39 degrees
+27 more
+31 degrees
August 7 +16 more
+33 degrees
+23 more
+25 degrees
August 13 +18 more
+36 degrees
+25 more
+27 degrees
Map temperatures August 2022
Probability of the August 2022 monitoring runs being too cold, normal, too warm compared to the long-term average (1961 to 1990)

Long-term model August weather forecast

To the weather in August is simulated too warm by +1.5 to +2.5 degrees compared to 1961 and 1990 (91/20: +0.1 to +1.1 degrees). In the rainfall forecast this should be The weather across Germany is clearly too dry. The initially too wet rainfall forecast over northern Italy was corrected in the last 96 hours to the moderately increased area and today extended to the entire Mediterranean area.

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