Bitcoin (BTC): The $ 19,000 could be defended
BTCBTC course: $ 20,096 (last week: $ 19,158)
Short-term resistors / targets: 20,378 USD, 20,963 USD, 21,892 USD, 22,834 /23,289 USD, 25,498 USD, 26,734 USD, 29,696 USD / 28,107 USD, 29,975 USD, 30,612 USD.
Short-term support: $ 19,720 / 20,036, $ 19,212 / 18,950, $ 18,585, $ 17,909 / 17,567, $ 16,180, $ 14,838, $ 14,311, $ 13,858
- Bitcoin price volatility continued to decline over the last few trading days. Since the last price analysis, it has moved in a range between 23 Fibonacci retracement to $ 18,624 on the downside and 78 Fibonacci retracement of $ 20,963 on the upside. The trading margin was just over 12 percentage points.
- In recent days, however, the bulls have gradually managed to push higher local lows.
- Despite increased setbacks in the classic stock market – the leading German index Dax40 reached a new low for the year yesterday, Tuesday – the key cryptocurrency managed to stabilize above the important price mark of USD 19,000.
- According to OnChain analytics platform Glassnode, a total of 151,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn from global cryptocurrencies in the previous month of June – the highest value ever recorded since the registrations began. In the past, high outflows were a bullish indication of price developments.
- Glassnode has also seen a dynamic increase in bitcoin addresses worth more than one BTC over the last 3 weeks. Investors seem to see the current price range as an opportunity to stock up more.
- Also bullish: Bitcoin remains despite the continued strength of the US dollar – this peaked at 19 years old last Tuesday – stable in its trading area around $ 20,000.
Increased volatility in the coming trading days
- Important financial data is expected on Wednesday evening and next Friday. They can significantly affect prices in global financial markets in both directions.
- The US Noteback Fed publishes its FOMC minutes at 20:00 this Wednesday. Monthly US job data will be released on July 8 at. 14.30. Investors should keep an eye on both.
- Also to be assessed positively: the relative strength of the entire crypto market despite ongoing bad news from the lending sector. In the last few hours of trading, another provider had to file for bankruptcy, Voyager Digital.
- Both indicators, RSI and MACD, generated fresh buy signals in the 4-hour chart. On a daily basis, the MACD indicator continues to show a buy signal.
- The relevant price tags for the coming days and weeks are unchanged at $ 19,000 as support at the bottom and $ 21,892 at the top.
- Only when the Bitcoin price can sustainably break out of this trading range can a directional decision be planned for the coming period.
Bullish Scenario (BTC):
- Bitcoin tried again yesterday, Tuesday, against the upper edge of the relevant trading range, but failed in the golden pocket at the range between USD 17,567 and USD 21,892 to USD 20,378 for the 4-hour closing price.
- In the short term, the buyer camp must now strive to break through this resistance sustainably to make room for $ 20,967. If this mark is surpassed and the horizontal resistance of USD 21,373 is left, another attempt can be expected to break out in the turquoise zone around USD 21,892.
- A sustained eruption over this strong resistance area will activate additional price potential against the resistance range between USD 22,834 and USD 23,289. The EMA200 (blue) in the 4-hour chart is currently running at USD 22,834 and the higher level 38 Fibonacci retracement to USD 23,233.
- In this zone, the bulls may regain more profits. Bärenlager will also plan another attempt to sell.
- If Bitcoin develops enough buying momentum to also break through this area sustainably, a subsequent increase up to USD 24,291 is likely.
The recovery is gaining momentum
- If Bitcoin overcomes this zone without significant setbacks, the recovery movement to the north will continue to pick up speed.
- Although there are also potential reversal levels of USD 25,498 and USD 26,170, a direct rise to 61 Fibonacci retracement of USD 26,734 is more likely. Here, it should be difficult for Bitcoin to break straight to the top on the first try.
- If Bitcoin can also regain this resistance in the long run, the orange zone between USD 27,696 and the old tear-off edge of USD 28,104 will come into focus.
- Even a direct increase up to USD 28,607 would be conceivable. At the latest at this price tag, increased profit-taking must be expected.
- Should Bitcoin subsequently jump over this resistance range, additional targets of USD 29,256 and USD 29,975 will be activated.
- The maximum bullish price targets for the coming trading weeks are unchanged at USD 31,750 and USD 32,383.
- As long as Bitcoin does not stabilize above USD 32,383, a price increase in this zone can be interpreted as a technical recovery movement.
Bearish Scenario (BTC):
- Although the Bears prevented a rise back to the top of the range of USD 21,892 several times in the last few trading days, they did not even manage to sell the BTC price below USD 18,950 at the end of the day.
- The sales side must now do everything in the short term to maneuver Bitcoin back below USD 19,881. The next step is to limit the BTC price to below USD 19,720 per share. 4-hour closing.
- Only then does the probability of a trend-following movement rise up to 38 Fibonacci retracement of the current movement to USD 19,219.
- If this support is also broken and the support mark of USD 18,950 is also undercut, the 23 Fibonacci retracement of USD 18,585 will return to the focus of investors.
Another wave of divestitures is imminent
- If the bears also manage to undercut this support, a directional decision will be made for USD 17,909. Giving up this support mark puts the year’s low of $ 17,567 back in investors’ focus.
- If the classic stock market simultaneously generates new annual lows, Bitcoin should break down to the support of USD 16,180. This course grade is taken from the daily chart.
- If the bull camp’s attempt to stabilize fails, Bitcoin is likely to fall again, correcting for the green support range between $ 14,837 and $ 13,858.
- This support area will remain the maximum bearish price target for the coming months.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are just an assessment from the analyst.
The map images are made using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of printing: EUR 0.98.
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